Friday, November 12, 2004

Nostradamus I'm not
I'm not going to lie to you -- writing and thinking about politics these days is about as much fun as watching Requiem For A Dream on an infinite loop, or sitting down for an all-day marathon of Neil Labute movies. So I'm going to post about something else. That something else is what a monstrously awful prognosticator I actually am. Here are the predictions I made about this year's baseball season, with my smart-ass comments underneath. The numbers in parentheses represent the number of games by which my prediction was off.

NL East Tough division should see good 3-team race.
Philadelphia 95-67 (9) Spring training has not been encouraging
Florida 93-69 (10) Counting them out is a serious mistake
Atlanta 87-75 (9) It ends. This year. And then it gets worse.
New York 80-82 (9) With a little luck, could even compete.
Montreal 70-92 (3) Baseball’s Marco Polo takes a dive.

NL Central Half tough division, half patsy central
Chicago 98-64 (9) Is Borowski the real deal? Rotation is stacked.
Houston 96-66 (4) Ditto, but losing Billy Wagner effects the whole bullpen.
St. Louis 84-78 (21) Mediocre pitching can’t compete.
Pittsburgh 70-92 (2) Mediocre pitching locks up 4th place.
Milwaukee 69-93 (2) It’s going to be a long season.
Cincinnati 65-97 (11) That pitching is bad. Supa-bad. Offense is also overrated.

NL West This division got mediocre in a hurry.
Arizona 88-74 (37!!!) Sexson, Johnson, and Webb win a weak division.
San Diego 85-77 (2) Huge improvement not quite enough.
Los Angeles 85-77 (8) Winter spent standing still was very costly.
San Francisco 80-82 (11) The bottom falls out of this operation.
Colorado 74-88 (6) Jeremy Burnitz? Vinny Castilla? Is it 2004 or 1994?

AL East ’27 Yanks might have trouble winning this one.
New York 106-56 (5) Only Sheffield’s thumb and Brown’s health could derail.
Boston 99-63 (1) Tim Wakefield + B-H Kim spell T-R-O-U-B-L-E.
Toronto 93-69 (26) Would easily win AL Central.
Baltimore 83-79 (5) Could win AL Central with difficulty.
Tampa Bay 61-101 (9) Would Win Pacific Coast League with difficulty. Overrated.

AL Central Worst division since 1973 NL East. Will winner be .500?
Minnesota 82-80 (10) Name one player that truly scares you.
Chicago 80-82 (3) Could win if back of rotation pulls through.
Kansas City 76-86 (18) No team with Brian Anderson at #1 wins anything.
Cleveland 70-92 (10) Prospects don’t win big-league games.
Detroit 58-104 (14) Subpar acquisitions + worst team ever = really bad team.

AL West Toss-up between Anaheim and Oakland
Anaheim 94-68 (2) More questions in rotation than you might think.
Oakland 92-70 (1) Simply not enough offense to take the division.
Seattle 87-75 (24) Boone is the only offensive threat, no #1 starter.
Texas 68-94 (21) The Rangers have sucked the entire Bush administration.

The most egregious pick was clearly the Diamondbacks to win the NLWest. It's not often that your division pick ends up being the worst National League team since the 1969 Montreal Expos. They were so bad that no one other than Randy Johnson won more than seven games, and Shea Hillenbrand led the team with 80 RBIs. But that's the nature of the business. I correctly predicted the winners of every AL division, but I botched each division in the NL. Minnesota answered my smarmy challenge with Cy Young winner Johan Santana, who put together perhaps the most dominating three months since Bob Gibson in 1968. Vinny Castilla and Jeremy Burnitz, who I mocked, both hit more than 30 home runs and drove in well over 100 runs.

Hey, I tried.


2 Comments:

At 11:48 AM, Blogger Annie DiMario said...

You had Cincinnati in LAST PLACE?!?!

Granted, you're right about their pitching. And, well, they didn't finish too far off from last place. but I don't think their offense is too overrated.

Last place!

 
At 11:50 AM, Blogger Annie DiMario said...

Oi, correction. I thought your comments, if not the predictions, were present-day. As I read on, I saw that it was clearly all written at the beginning of the season.

Still. Last place!

 

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