Sunday, October 31, 2004

New prediction
Forget Newsweek's bogus poll -- most polls show a dead heat, and now both Fox and the Washington Post show a very slim Kerry lead among registered voters. Zogby has Kerry winning 6 of the 10 big battleground states. If I'm doing the math right, Zogby's numbers would give Kerry something like 286 EVs in the Electoral College, with FL and NH (which everyone agrees is going for Kerry, though I haven't read any good analysis of why) flipping to Kerry and only NM flipping to Bush. In the interest of fairness, a polling outfit called Mason-Dixon has remarkably different numbers which are much more favorable for Bush. Unfortunately, they are the outlier in almost every single poll they've done, which didn't stop Knight-Ridder's newspaper empire from touting a Bush lead this morning.

In any case, last week's enthusiasm about Arkansas has not been borne out in any major poll I've seen since then, so I guess I have to face reality and issue a new prediction, my final one. This, incidentally, is also the prediction that is going into our department Electoral College pool for $5. Here goes: Turnout, energy, and new registrations give Kerry narrow victories in the Bush 2000 states of Ohio, Florida, and New Hampshire, adding 51 EVs to the Gore 2000 base of 260. However, Bush ekes out extremely narrow wins in Iowa and New Mexico to keep Kerry under 300 EVs. Final tally: Kerry 299, Bush 239. In the popular vote, Kerry becomes the first candidate since George H.W. Bush to win a simple majority of votes, with 50.1% to Bush's 48.5%. Nader, Badnarik and all the others combine for a paltry 1.4% of the popular vote.

Note that Kerry could drop either Florida or Ohio in this scenario and still win. That's my story. And I'm sticking to it.


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